Arushi Pathania
Introduction
The election of Donald Trump and the emergence of his “America First” ideology represent a significant challenge to the post-World War II liberal international order and its underlying premise that a rules-based global system benefits U.S. interests in the long run. Trump’s “America First” approach, characterized by a mix of economic isolationism and an interventionist military and political strategy under constrained resources, created significant strategic unpredictability in global affairs. For India, a nation that has meticulously developed its ties with Washington for over two decades, Trump’s second term signifies both uncertainty and opportunity.
The Core Doctrine: Transactional Unilateralism and “America First 2.0”
At its core, Trump 2.0’s foreign policy is not a return to traditional American isolationism but a type of unilateral interventionism aimed at optimizing American self-interest and reaffirming global dominance exclusively on U.S. terms. The philosophy is essentially transactional: partnerships and security obligations are not unconditional public goods but financial contracts that must provide direct, measurable benefits to the US. This perspective asserts that allies have been “free-riding” on U.S. military and economic capabilities for years, and the aim of the new administration is to put an end to this behavior through pressure, renegotiation, or withdrawal.
The economic pillar of this policy is protectionism. The administration has publicly committed to implementing a 10% baseline universal tariff on virtually all imported goods. This policy not only serves as a punitive measure but also as a core instrument of foreign policy, which ultimately aims at boosting domestic manufacturing, compelling trading partners to agree to new conditions, and generating revenue for domestic expenditure initiatives.
Furthermore, the policy is expected to be implemented with increased speed, less internal bureaucratic friction, and a heightened degree of personalization. By appointing highly loyal officials across the national security framework, the second term is set to circumvent established checks and balances from the State and Defense Departments, resulting in increased volatility and unpredictability in global policy.
Economic Friction and the Drive for Autonomy
The strategic alignment between the two countries is increasingly rooted in the nationalist aspirations of MAGA (Make America Great Again) and MIGA (Make India Great Again). Economic cooperation under “Trump 2.0” has centered on three core agendas: trade tariffs, industrial collaboration, and supply chain restructuring.
Despite existing cooperation in key areas like energy, trade, and defense, the transactional nature of U.S. policy generates significant friction. Trump’s preference for tariffs and protectionist policies could restrict India’s access to the U.S. market. Apart from this, India is also being pressured to grant concessions on trade and immigration in exchange for wider strategic objectives. The tightening of the U.S. H- 1B visa policies, which directly impacts the Indian IT sector as well as the diaspora, has become a major negotiating point requiring mutually beneficial adjustments.
To counter this uncertainty, India aims to pursue strategic autonomy through the process of diversification. A fundamental component of this strategy is doubling down on the “Act East” policy, which consists of six elements, including: Strengthening security alliances with key nations (like the U.S., Japan, and Vietnam), taking on greater regional leadership (SAGAR) alone with enhancing military preparation and modernization.
The Indo-Pacific, The Quad, and India’s Maritime Vision
The U.S. focus on a “free and open Indo-Pacific” remains a key theme, one that clearly includes India due to its democratic values and strategic importance. The Indo-Pacific framework is a strategic area encompassing the eastern Indian and Western Pacific oceans. The revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), comprising the United States, Australia, India, and Japan, serves as a direct response to concerns of China’s increasing assertiveness and lack of commitment to a rules- based order.
India’s participation in the Quad is viewed not as a traditional alliance but as a means to safeguard its interests and broaden its alternatives in addressing Chinese advancements that conflict with its strategic goals. During his first term, Trump maintained a strong personal relationship with Prime Minister Modi, and this strategic alignment was expected to continue. However, scholarly analysis underscores a crucial distinction in strategic orientation now since India’s maritime interests and strategy are aligned with an Indian Ocean vision, rather than an Indo-Pacific vision, because it is vital primarily due to its function as a major route for energy and raw material sea lines of communication.
The transactional nature of “America First” has direct implications for regional security cooperation, particularly within the Quad framework. A renewed Trump administration insists on higher financial support from its allies. If the U.S. reduces its expenditure on Indo-Pacific security schemes, then India which is recognized for its geographic significance and growing naval capabilities, might be compelled to invest more in providing security to prevent the creation of a strategic void.
Conclusion
The “Trump 2.0” foreign policy model represents a deliberate and disruptive break from the consensus that has governed U.S. global engagement for decades. By prioritizing a transactional and protectionist “America First” agenda, the administration is likely to destabilize the NATO alliance, undermine core international institutions, and introduce considerable economic and geopolitical instability into the Indo-Pacific. The resultant global landscape will be one of heightened strategic uncertainty, forcing allies and competitors to significantly modify their foreign policy, defense expenditure, and trade approaches in order to navigate the unpredictable nature of the world’s single superpower.
About the Author
This blog article is authored by Arushi Pathania, an aspiring policy analyst with a strong interest in public policy, global security, diplomacy, international relations, and gender studies. She is currently pursuing a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science.
Acknowledgement: This article was posted by Vatsala Sinha, Research Intern at IMPRI.
Disclaimer: All views expressed in the article belong solely to the author and not necessarily to the organisation.
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