Policy Update
Arushi Jain
BACKGROUND
The BIMSTEC Centre for Weather and Climate (BCWC) is a joint effort as part of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).
It is established by seven member countries of BIMSTEC, namely- Bangladesh, Bhutan, Indian, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand.
With these seven countries coming together in 2004, BIMSTEC’s vision for regional cooperation and integration to promote development and growth both within and between nations was incorporated.
Despite this, a severe challenge that affects all of the BIMSTEC countries is climate change.
It is having adverse and transboundary impacts on a number of sectors including agriculture, water resources, health, etc., which will further slow the development process.
To counter the effects of climate change, the BCWC was established in 2018 at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) in Noida, India. The Centre seeks to enhance regional cooperation related to weather forecasting, climate modeling, climate impacts and disaster preparedness.
The BCWC represents the inspiration that climate and weather-related disasters tend to be of a transboundary nature, and therefore a platform for coordinated, evidence-based responses is necessary. The BCWC visions a Bay of Bengal region that is climate resilient and empowers countries to act on risks, protect their livelihoods and develop innovations.
FUNCTIONING
BCWC functions with a formal Memorandum of Association and Host Country Agreements. The objectives of the BCWC include:
- Real-time information exchanges on meteorological and oceanographic data of BIMSTEC countries
- Collaborative development of seasonal and sub-seasonal forecast systems
- Implementation of regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modelling
- Cross-border collaborative research projects on monsoon variability, cyclone prediction, and climate extremes
- Annual technical meetings, training and capacity building for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs)
India hosts the computing infrastructure in Noida while the other member countries provide observational data, research and human resources.
The data- sharing processes designed and adopted by BCWC have been kept transparent to allow data transparency and minimize duplication of work by member countries.
PERFORMANCE AND KEY INITIATIVES BY BCWC
BCWC has delivered effective and operational accomplishments since its inception. Some of the major examples of collaboration include.
- Bhutan, Nepal, and India: A trilateral partnership development which implements a shared hydrological forecast model for Himalayan River basins developed in 2023. This model is currently being used to inform transboundary flood preparedness in eastern Nepal and western Bhutan.
- Bangladesh and Myanmar: The two countries are utilizing the BCWC cyclone probability forecasts to integrate them with their national disaster alert systems. During Cyclone Mocha (2023), the first operational usage of a joint early warning bulletin was delivered.
- India leads on technical operations and ensemble modelling within BCWC. In 2024 India launched a regional training series on sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction which included over 50 scientists from all BIMSTEC countries.
- In addition, BCWC has supported research to examine the regional impacts of ocean warming and variability for monsoons and fish migration patterns, in support of ecological conservation and livelihoods planning.
KEY IMPACT
BCWC’s regional initiatives have provided specific policy and field-level impacts:
- Forecast Skill: The regional forecast of average rainfall predictions improved by 18% from the year 2019 till the year 2024. India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan showed the most improvement during the monsoon season.
- Early Warnings: The cyclone early warning framework supported the successful evacuation of over 300,000 people in Bangladesh and coastal Myanmar during Cyclone Mocha (2023), avoiding many casualties.
- Agricultural Yields: In 2024, BCWC created successful pest control advisories that benefited over 10,000 smallholder farmers in Bhutan.
- Transboundary Dialogue: The Bhutan-Nepal-India collaboration has led to ongoing dialogue on transboundary water governance aligning hydrological forecast policies for implementation.
- Training and Networking: In the past three years, BCWC has trained a cohort of over 250 weather professionals, representing all seven countries with joint training opportunities.
EMERGING ISSUES
While the BCWC is a powerful example of regional cooperation, there are some challenges to be met with. One of the greatest challenges is that some member countries still have difficulty producing high-resolution observations regularly, which limits collective forecasts with their lack of credibility. In most cases, national agencies still remain siloed in their operations and have yet to inculcate BCWC’s findings into regular forecasting models. No less challenging is the disjuncture at the grassroots level.
Climate warnings often do not get heard to those most affected, ranging from coastal fishers to subsistence farmers, tribal communities, and others living on the frontlines of environmental change. Another challenge is the notion of hierarchy felt by other member countries.
India’s push to lead in providing infrastructure and resources is crucial but can also create an impression of differential ownership among others. Perhaps the most basic requirement today is to strengthen coordination among environmental ministries and disaster management agencies so that early warnings are implemented into immediate actions.
WAY FORWARD
To strengthen and establish a more successful BCWC framework, the following strategies should be considered
- Institutional Co-Creation: Create units that are operated jointly or establish regional satellite hubs in Bhutan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to decentralize operations and facilitate co-ownership.
- Sustainable Funding: Establish a pooled BIMSTEC/BCWC Climate Fund with equitable regional contributions and additional support from multilateral partners, such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB), IMF and global institutions.
- Community-Centric Messaging: there should be continued development of push messages on phones with local language text supports, additional SMS alerts, and community radio broadcasts. This tackles the last-mile barriers to communication. It includes areas identified as climate- vulnerable like the Sundarbans and delta regions in Myanmar, where the local population have risks of climate-affected communications.
- Student and Academic Partnerships: Introduce BCWC Research Fellowships and Inter-University Climate Lab innovations under BIMSTEC to allow greater engagement.
CONCLUSION
The BIMSTEC Centre for Weather and Climate is a ground-breaking example of regional scientific cooperation within one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions. India, being the habitat of the Centre, reflects the Centre’s aspirations, though shared responsibility between the seven member countries is important and required.
Cross-border initiatives, such as the Bhutan-Nepal-India flood forecasting model, provide examples of how regional data can frame local resilience. In the face of the growing uncertainty of climate change, BCWC has the opportunity to evolve as a facilitator for collaborative environmental diplomacy and sustainable development.
References
- BIMSTEC Secretariat. (2024). BIMSTEC Centre for Weather and Climate. Retrieved from https://bimstec.org
- Confederation of Indian Industry. (2023). BIMSTEC: A Regional Opportunity to Mitigate Environmental and Climate Change. https://ciiblog.in/bimstec-a-regional-opportunity-to-mitigate-environmental-and-climate-change/
- NCMRWF. (2024). National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. Retrieved from https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in
- ICIMOD. (2024). Climate Services for Resilient Development in the Hindu Kush Himalaya. https://www.icimod.org/initiative/climate-services/
- BIMSTEC Secretariat. (n.d.). BIMSTEC Centre for Weather and Climate. https://bimstec.org/bimstec-centre-for-weather-and-climate
- Confederation of Indian Industry. (2023, April 24). BIMSTEC: A regional opportunity to mitigate environmental and climate change. CII Blog. https://ciiblog.in/bimstec-a-regional-opportunity-to-mitigate-environmental-and-climate-change/
- Kaushik, A. (2023, July 28). BIMSTEC & climate change: Setting a common agenda. Observer Research Foundation. https://www.orfonline.org/research/bimstec-climate-change-setting-common-agenda
About The Contributor: Arushi Jain is a Research Intern at the Impact and Policy Research Institute (IMPRI) and is in the final year of her master’s degree in international studies from Symbiosis School of International Studies, Pune. Her interest lies in analyzing domestic and foreign policies of countries globally.
Acknowledgement: The author sincerely thanks the IMPRI team for their valuable support.
Disclaimer: All views expressed in the article belong solely to the author and not necessarily to the organization.
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