Policy Update
Naushaba
Narendra Modi, under his third prime ministership, visited President Vladimir Putin in Mosow, Russia on the 8th of July as his first official visit after entering office. It has been a few days since his visit, however, the imprint of their bear hug has a lot to suggest.
The 22nd India-Russia Annual Summitt
The two leaders spent a cozy and comfortable evening at President Putin’s residence a day before the official meet. The official 22nd India-Russia annual summit took place in Moscow on the 8th of July 2024. This was also the first time PM Modi visited Moscow since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2021. Several agreements were signed between both countries in areas of cooperation, investment, trade, economic development, Climate Change, Research and Health.
To facilitate the increase in trade and investment between the Far East region of Russia and India, a program of India-Russia cooperation in trade, economic and investment was signed for a period of five years. A Joint Investment Promotion Framework Agreement was framed to facilitate investment by Russian companies in Indian markets. An MoU to promote bilateral trade and investment, organise meetings, and facilitate the exchange of business delegations was also signed.
In the area of Climate Change, An MoU between the National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research, the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the Government of India and the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute on Cooperation in Research and Logistics in polar regions was signed to promote cooperation and sharing of research in polar environments. A Joint Working Group on the issues of Climate change and low-carbon development was also established between the ministries to exchange information and promote best practices for developing low-cost technologies.
Under the Health sector, an MoU was signed between the health ministries of both countries to ensure the availability of high-quality medicines with information exchange and capacity building. Furthermore, in the field of broadcasting, an MoU on Cooperation and Collaboration on Broadcasting between Prasar Bharati, India, and ANO “TV-Novosti” (Russia Today TV Channel), Russia was also signed.
These agreements not only further strengthened the already rock-strong relations between India and Russia but also raised deep fears among the global rivals, mainly the United States.
Shifting Away from ‘The Neighbourhood’
In his third term, PM Narendra Modi has restrained from his template of paying first visits to neighbouring countries after joining the office. During his first tenure in 2014, Modi visited Bhutan while in his second tenure in 2019, he chose to visit Sri Lanka and Maldives. Leaving Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh suggests the geopolitical tension in the region.
India is stigmatised for its big brotherly attitude in the region and the recent India-China rivalry in South Asia has further alleviated the tension between India and its neighbours. This has ensued a shift of balance in the South Asian region. India’s South Asian neighbours have been resorting to China for better development and investment opportunities.
The India-Out campaign in Maldives and Bangladesh, growing territorial issues with Nepal, and all-weather enemy Pakistan showcase India’s decreasing influence in the region with China taking up the space. This fear of the increasing influence of China and the decreasing influence of India can be resonated with PM Modi’s choice of visiting Moscow for its first bilateral visit.
Strategic Importance of Russia
During President Putin’s visit to India in 2020, Moscow was elevated to the level of Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership. To this, Modi’s visit to Moscow as the first bilateral meeting indicated the Russia-India partnership. This was also the first time since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke off in February 2022.
Russia and India have a history of strategic relations and both countries have always avoided policies and actions leading to deterioration of their relations. Despite heavy Western sanctions on Russia, India has not shied away from oil and defence purchases from it. To this, India has also been able to avoid condemning Russia for the conflict. Aditionally, despite western sanctions both the countries doubled their rupee-rouble payments since the last year and aim to boost bilateral trade to hit $100 billion by 2030.
India meets 60 to 70% of its defence supplies from Russia and a recent decline seen in defence supplies can hamper India’s military front. Furthermore, the China factor has always been a concern. Russia’s growing dependence on China in terms of trade and investment since the start of the Russia-Ukraine has also become a concern for India. China’s growing inroads across the region from South Asia to the Indo-Pacific and now in Russia can put limits on India’s growth as Vishwa Guru.
The Changing World Order
The US and Russia have a history of differing ideologies and stances, which has again come to the forefront with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Both global powers have been vying for support for their different world orders, however, India as always has been able to swim in the hot waters. India is known for its strategy of Hedging to avoid any conflictual and risky position. Here again, India managed to attend the G7 summit in Italy prior to his July 8 visit to Russia.
Despite the US and other Western countries sanctions on Russia, India has been able to purchase defence and oil supplies from India. While at the same time, it has been able to manage strategic relations with the US. India joined the QUAD despite Russia’s condemnation of the group, calling it Asian NATO. To avert the China situation, India has been able to play strategically with both powers.
Even the decision to make the first bilateral visit to Moscow by India can be seen as a strategic move. The recent strides that ex-president Donald Trump has been making in the recent US elections is one reason for it. The vision is that if Donald Trump comes back to power in the 2024 elections, the tensions between Russia and the US will settle down to an extent. Ex-president Trump has blamed President Joe Biden for the Russia-Ukraine conflict from the beginning.
Echoes from the World
The US was quick to respond to PM Modi’s first bilateral visit to Moscow while he was being conferred with the ‘Order of St. Andrew The Apostle,’ the highest civilian award of Russia. The US ambassador to India, eric garcetti called India to take friendship with Washington “for granted.” The US National Security Advisor cautioned that stronger ties with Russia will be a “bad bet” for India. To the US reaction, Dmitry Peskkov, Kremlin spokesperson quickly responded by saying, “they are jealous that means they are closely monitoring it.”
Ukraine President, Vladimir Zelensky condemned India for such a move amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. He wrote on X (former Twitter), “It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day.” This is again the most critical statement by president Zelensky since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In the strategic circles of China, the visit sparked an intense debate as Beijing put its efforts at calculating the strategic move by India. Many believe that the visit was aimed at circumventing Western sanctions and diversifying its partnerships. While others condemned and resented Western leaders for not criticising it enough and called it as West’s double standards. For China, India maintaining a balance between the powers is not favourable as it will give India an upper hand. Maintaining closer ties with Russia is not much of a concern than with the US, as it is a global rival to rising China.
Conclusion
PM Modi’s visit to Russia as his first bilateral visit suggests a lot about the ongoing geopolitics as well as the possible geopolitical initiatives and policies after it. The visit has not only alleviated the India-Russia level of Partnership but also has left an imprint on other global powers including the US and China. Though the move was aimed at maintaining a strategic balance between both the US and Russia and saving itself from the expanding influence of China, India was criticised by the US for its move.
While for China, it wasn’t the response and scenario that it was looking for. India marinating a balance with both the US and Russia is worrisome for China as the US is its global rival and Russia is the sole power on which it is dependent. It will be interesting to look at the upcoming policy action that will further shape geopolitics.
References
- List of outcomes: Official visit of Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi to Russia. (n.d.). Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India.
- TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL ARMS TRANSFERS, 2023. (n.d.). In SIPRI Fact Sheet. SIPRI. Retrieved March 2024
About the Contributor: Naushaba (she/her/hers) is a research intern at the Impact and Policy Research Institute and a postgraduate student of the Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia. Her research interests lie in Gender Studies, Global Politics, Climate Change and Sustainable Development.
Acknowledgment: The author would like to express sincere gratitude to Dr. Arjun Kumar, Ms Aasthaba Jadeja, Ms Lakshita, and Mr Shivansh Narayan for their invaluable contributions into this article. Their support, guidance, and expertise were instrumental in its completion.
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