Policy Update
Elenora Tu’u
Background
Formerly dependent on foreign aid (post-independent India), the country is now positioning itself as a self-reliant actor in climate resilience. This article highlights India’s affirmative stand as a self-reliant nation in its climate resilience strategy. Emphasizing the shift from dependence to domestic strength and autonomy. The nation’s dependency on water resources, agriculture, and climate-sensitive sectors underscores the need for reliable climate and weather services.
The Ministry of Earth and Sciences(MoEs), launched in 2006, filters multiple scientific disciplines under an umbrella approach, delivering coordinated services for weather, ocean, climate and any geophysical phenomena foreseen. The nation’s weather and climate services are operationalised through agencies such as The National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Indian Meteorological Department(IMD), and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). Moreover, integrating indigenous knowledge and local infrastructure to harness the art of technology in weather and climate services. Climate change and change in weather patterns are no longer seen as environmental crises, rather, a sustainable and politically manipulative way out for nations advancing their national interest in the best possible way.
Developing nations like India must leverage and integrate the use of technology systems to meet contemporary global demands or continue to be dominated by existing power structures that instrumentalise climate negotiations to advance their geopolitical interests. Thus, weather & climate services in recent years have been used as a platform of power asymmetry; the extent to which larger power states instrumentalise climate diplomacy dialogues through negotiations, dominating developing nations.
Hence, the policy underpinning climate and weather services focuses on exemplifying the nation’s way forward. Ensuring real-time accuracy, reach and relevance in weather forecast systems and climate resilient strategies to mitigate issues of national concern. The primary need is that India is among one of the nations that contribute to CO2 emissions (8%, global emissions). Additionally, the demand rises from the nation’s frequent extreme weather events, heatwaves, urban flooding and the rising demand and need to improve agriculture productivity.
Key objectives of the policy
The key objectives include
- Saving lives.
- Reducing economic losses.
- Enabling climate-informed planning.
Timeline
Weather and climate services timelines for major upgrades began with the twelfth Five-Year Plan, with continuing efforts and developments under successive annual budgets, plans and missions such as the Deep Ocean Mission-2021 and National Monsoon Mission-2012.
Beneficiaries include:
- Common populous(General public)
- Farmers
- Disaster managers
- Urban planners
- Fishers
Functions
The scope of function on weather and climate services are mostly delivered through an integrated stratified network of operational systems, dissemination mechanisms and modelling frameworks. The NCMRFW and IITM develop robust models for short, seasonal and medium-term forecasts, while the IMD functions as a Pan-India network of automatic weather stations, satellite linking systems and Doppler radars.
Active service updates include:
- Daily, weekly, and seasonal forecasts for agriculture and fisheries.
- Customised information for aviation, railways, and power sectors.
- Early warnings for cyclones, heatwaves, and floods.
- Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS), a flagship agro-met advisory program for farmers.
- The implementation of these services leverages television, radio, mobile apps, and community networks in collaboration with Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) and state departments.
Performance
India’s climate and weather forecasting capability has improved significantly over the past decade, according to The Ministry of Earth and Sciences’ timeline records. For instance, the response forecast on cyclones now has a 48-72 lead time with an error margin of less than hundred kilometers, which is globally competitive.This means disseminating location-specific forecasts. Additionally, providing crop-specific advisories through radio, sms, TV and mobile apps have improved production. This is subject to initiatives like Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) or Rural Agriculture Weather Service that have been designed to improve production. Its core benefit lies in weather based advisories that support agriculture decision making.
Launched by IMD in collaboration with ICAR,provides agro-met services to farmers across India.This helps farmers reduce losses from extreme weather and improve productivity. As a result,over forty million farmers receive weekly advisories to help them make informed decisions in agriculture. In fact, progressive measures have been achieved, leading to a 10-25% increase in harvests in pilot studies. The accuracy of results from heavy rainfall predictions has improved from 60% – 75% in 2022, according to the Indian Meteorological Department’s annual performance report.
Additionally, computer power and model resolution framework have improved with the implementation and commissioning of high-performance computing systems like Pratyush and Mihir, used by IMD under MoES to enhance the accuracy and speed of weather forecasting in India. Moreover, collaborations with institutions such as the UK Met Office and NOAA (USA) have further advanced prediction systems. Both agencies work closely with India’s weather and climate systems by offering global data, technical expertise, capacity building, research partnership to improve early warnings, forecast accuracy and climate resilience.
Impact
The expansion of climate services has had multi-sectoral benefits, such as
- Agriculture -Improved planning of sowing and harvesting reduced losses.
- Fisheries – Ocean state forecasts enhance the safety and efficiency of fishing trips.
- Public Health- Early warnings for heatwaves contributed to fewer heat-related deaths in cities like Ahmedabad.
- Disaster Risk Reduction- Fewer casualties from cyclones (e.g., Amphan, Tauktae) due to timely evacuation.
This effect directly contributes to Sustainable Development Goal 13 on Climate Action, SDG 2 on Zero hunger, and SDG 11 on Sustainable Cities. Affirming the nation’s ability to self sustain growth and development on a progressive scale. On a macro-level – highlighting the need for dependent nations(developing nations)to reassess climate policies suitable to the demands and needs in crucial sectors that assume economic growth, disaster management for sustainable growth and development simultaneously through climate action response strategies, leveraging the benefit of weather and climate services.
The bar graph highlights the specific types of services covered under MoES.It’s seen, Cyclone alerts, flood forecasting, and agro-met advisories are the most widely implemented services across the country.
Example of Indigenous Knowledge integration effort – by its weather and climate services. A brief case study view. To Enhance Local Relevance of Forecasts.
| Approach | Example or System | Outcome |
| Indigenous Weather IK | Rain/soil/Wind markers in Gujarat/Rajasthan Villages | Located a veiled prediction of drought onset |
| Institutional Integration | NICRA’s CRVs & Krishi Vigyan Kendras | Village-level climate resilience system. |
| Participatory mapping | Odisha dream maps, Darma Valley Training | Land use planning Resilience |
| Inclusive Alert Systems | Heat wave WhatsApp alerts, etc .. | Improves early warning for vulnerable groups. |
Indigenous women farmers in Odisha and Jharkhand integrate traditional weather indicators (bird calls, leaf curl, sky color) into their farming decisions (AP News, 2024). https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/heatwave-alerts-to-reach-the-most-exposed-group/articleshow/121809139.cms?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Benefit: By incorporating local indicators and experiential knowledge, MoES can tailor forecasts to be more actionable and trusted at the village level, especially in remote, non-digitally connected regions. Bridging the Trust Gap in Alerts and Advisories.
In Uttarakhand’s Darma Valley, scientists observed that traditional knowledge—such as predicting rainfall by animal behaviour or changes in wind patterns—is still used by farmers for crop decisions(TOI, 2024). https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/dehradun/scientists-promote-climate-resilient-farming-in-darma-valley/articleshow/121734949.cms?utm
Context from heatwave alerts, though scientifically accurate, often fail to reach or be understood by vulnerable groups such as urban poor, rural women, and farmers (TOI, 2024). Indigenous groups already rely on traditional social systems to spread critical environmental warnings. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/heatwave-alerts-to-reach-the-most-exposed-group/articleshow/121809139.cms?
Benefit: Integrating IK can increase public trust and improve updates of MoES alerts. When scientific forecasts are aligned with culturally understood signs, community buy-in improves, especially for extreme events like heatwaves or cyclones.
Climate-Resilient Farming Practices.
Farmers in Darma Valley are reviving traditional crop rotation, local seed varieties, and mixed cropping practices inherently climate-resilient.Indigenous women are using knowledge of soil fertility, water harvesting, and weather shifts to sustain agriculture despite erratic rainfall.MoES can integrate this knowledge into Agro-met Advisory Services (GKMS) to make advisories not only weather-based but ecologically and culturally informed, improving uptake and outcomes.
Summary:
Empowerment of marginalised communities requires Indigenous knowledge holders—especially women— who are often excluded from formal decision-making in science and policy. By integrating IK, MoES can ensure representation, inclusion, and co-creation of weather services that empower communities.Benefit is that it builds equity and local capacity in MoES outreach, aligning with climate justice principles.
Emerging Issues
Challenges persist despite the progress.
- Data gaps: Sparse observations in remote and hilly regions lead to implementation issues in terms of model precision.
- Urban climate Risks: Reviews show that services are yet to be optimized effectively for cities prone to heat islands and flash floods.
- Communication bottlenecks: Last mile connectivity is often unreachable to tribal hamlets, mountain villages or forest zones – simply not understood or actionable at village level.
- Modelling limitations: Modeling regions struggle with complex topography or glacial dynamics,(eg; Jammu & Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Manipur).
- Resource constraints: Limited investment in sophisticated doppler radar, automated weather stations and high-resolution hydrological modeling.
- Capacity gaps: Also, the increase in W&C services systems requires trained personal, limited training for local offices in interpreting and using climate data hampers impact.
In summary, climate change and change in weather pattern or rather variability and global warming, thus pose a threat, with evolving risks that demand continual upgrades for climate and weather service systems. India’s affirmative stand can be seen as a road map for developing nations like the Pacific Island states which are vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather patterns that require models to address the dire challenges posed.
Solutions
This paper aims to propose improvements in specific areas of functions.
- Last-mile delivery of weather services. While MoES provides timely and accurate forecasts, these benefits do not reach vulnerable communities as stated above (fishfolk, smallholder farmers, informal workers of whom, many still rely on informal sources for weather information).
- Accelerate infrastructure expansion: Delays have affected the coverage of reliable forecasts in areas like the coastal zones, western ghats, and Northeast parts of India. It should be noted that 37 of 65 planned Doppler weather radars are operational, highlighting the gap. District Agro-Meteorological Units are yet to be set up in many vulnerable districts.
- Open data and Interoperability: Access to real-time updates for researchers, disaster managers and startups remains restricted
- Focus on Urban Climate Resilience: As MoE’s systems currently are not designed for hyper-local urban planning, such pose compounding climate risks-flash floods and poor air quality.
- Inter-Ministerial State Level Integration: Climate resilience requires coordination across crucial sectors such as Agriculture, Fisheries, Health, Housing, and various disaster management sectors.
- Climate literacy and Awareness: Often misinterpretation of forecast leads to poor preparedness.
Way Forward
India’s vulnerability to extreme weather is increasing, and MoES must evolve from a science agency to a citizen-centric and impact-driven institution.To strengthen India’s climate and disaster resilience, MoES must focus on enhancing last-mile delivery of early warning systems by working closely with panchayats, local disaster committees and vernacular media. Also, expanding the use of mobile app-based communication tools like ‘Meghoot and Damini’ in local languages will help bridge information gaps.Simultaneously, MoES should accelerate deployment of critical infrastructure such as Doppler radars and District Agro-Met Units, especially in underserved regions like the coastal belts and northeast parts of India.
Additionally, improve data transparency through an open-access National Climate Data Portal, which will help empower researchers, innovators and decision makers. Moreover, tailoring urban climate services and risk dashboards must be developed for Smart City Planning. To comprehend this, wayforward requires cross-ministerial coordination and collaborations, particularly, health, NDMA, agriculture, housing and water ministries should be institutionalised for integrated risk and disaster management. Finally, MoES should expand its role in long-term adaptation by supporting district-level projects and co-developing locally relevant action plans under the State Action Plan for Climate Change. Re-affirming the country positioning itself as a self-reliant actor in climate resilience, from dependency to autonomy with a citizen-centric governance system that exemplifies national priorities over dominance and power.
References
- India Meteorological Department. (2022). Annual Report 2021–22. https://mausam.imd.gov.i
- Ministry of Earth Sciences. (2020). Vision, Mission, and Achievements. https://moes.gov.in
- National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. (2021). Operational Highlights. https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. (2022). Research Initiatives. https://www.tropmet.res.in
- Kumar, A., & Rajeevan, M. (2020). Weather forecasting in India: Progress and prospects. Current Science, 119(7), 1130–1138.
- NDMA. (2021). Cyclone Preparedness Guidelines. https://ndma.gov.in
- WMO. (2023). Global Weather and Climate Services Annual Report. Retrieved from https://public.wmo.int
- National Disaster Management Authority. (2022). Heatwave Action Plan Review. https://ndma.gov.in
- Jain, S., & Singh, P. (2021). Climate Services for Indian Agriculture: Opportunities and gaps. Economic and Political Weekly, 56(18), 24–28.
- IMD & ICAR. (2021).
- Impact Evaluation of GKMS Services. Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare.
- India Meteorological Department. (n.d.). Weather Forecast Services. June 25, 2025, https://mausam.imd.gov.in
- Ministry of Earth Sciences. (2023). Annual Report 2022–23. Government of India. https://moes.gov.in
- Ministry of Earth Sciences. (2021). Strategy Plan 2021–2030. Government of India. https://moes.gov.in
- Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS). (n.d.). Ocean Information Services. Retrieved June 25, 2025, from https://incois.gov.in
- National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). (n.d.). Medium Range Forecasting Services. June 25,2025, https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. (n.d.). Research and Climate Modelling. 25, 2025, https://www.tropmet.res.in
- IMD & ICAR. (n.d.). Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS). India Meteorological Department.June 25, 2025, https://www.imdagrimet.gov.in
- National Disaster Management Authority. (n.d.). Early Warning Systems in India. June 25, 2025, https://ndma.gov.in
About the contributor: Elenora Tu’u is an undergraduate student specializing in Politics and Public Policy. This article is published as part of her course work with the IMPRI Impact and Policy Research Institute.
Acknowledgement: The author sincerely thanks Aasthaba Jadeja and IMPRI fellows for their valuable contribution.
Disclaimer: All views expressed in the article belong solely to the author and not necessarily to the organisation.
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