Vipra Arora baltic
The Baltic Sea is about to be the center of the Russia-NATO rivalry in the coming years. As of March 2024, the Baltic Sea, with the exception of Russia, is entirely surrounded by NATO members. With NATO’s only purpose being to defend the West from the Russian threat, this is of grave concern to Russia. This puts both St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad in a naval chokehold if NATO wished it so. But it wasn’t the first geopolitical threat to rise against them in the region. Such a threat also exists at the entry point of the Gulf of Finland which can block any movement from St Petersburg leaving Russia without any access to the region from that port.
Expansion of NATO has also proven a threat in other ways in this region. One such is the delicate situation of the Suwalki Gap. In 2004, the inclusion of Lithuania as a NATO member state meant that NATO, on both sides, now surrounded a narrow passage that assured connectivity between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia by ground via Belarus. It thus became another source of insecurity for the Russians. All in all, Kaliningrad is now in a position where it could potentially be entirely isolated from the rest of the country at NATO’s whim.
Finally, the Gotland Islands in the Baltic Sea were re-militarized soon after the 2014 invasion of Crimea by Russia. One among the many factors for this decision was a perceived threat from Russia’s actions in Crimea. It must be considered in the context that this perceived threat is from a country that has a “chronically underfunded” navy, and has been only 15 years into reviving its Military Industrial Complex which was in shambles after the disintegration of the USSR.
If anyone is in a threatening position, it seems to be Russia. Post-Cold War Russia was ideologically West-oriented, that hoped for good relations with Europe. However, the US’s reluctance to come out of the Cold War mindset kept them on the other side. Russia has since been focused on yet again, catching up on the losses it faced in the 1990s while defending its interests against NATO’s eastward expansion and being villainized for the same. In a world where everyone is talking about how Russia’s very existence is a threat, my aim through my research is to shine a light on how the US’s actions continue to threaten Russia.
The Baltics becoming a hotspot of strategic concerns and hostility was a scheme being escalated by the US to serve its larger interests. I will further claim that the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the ‘Russian invasion of Ukraine’ and the change of regime in Syria are all connected to this US scheme of ‘dealing with Russia’.
The idea for this topic came upon me while attending a class on Maritime Geopolitics where we were discussing damages to critical infrastructure and the Nord Stream 1 and 2 were brought up. These were natural gas pipelines which would help in transporting gas from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea.
In September 2022, they were damaged and through the narrative that was floated, the West blamed Russia. However, no concrete proof as to the culprit could be found. On reading more about it I realized how biased the narratives have been simply through the way the articles were phrased. Slowly I realized how much bigger the problem was, not just in terms of the bias shown towards this rivalry, but also geopolitically. This was my motivation to research and write on this topic.
It has not been easy researching the topic as some well-known centers have gone on rants about how unfair any Russian retaliation is. Others who write about it from a ‘research’ point of view also wish it to come from a Western perspective where Russia is a born villain and not one that was made. At no point do I assume that Russia is a saint in international politics, no one is. However, twisting and disregarding facts to prove a point is not healthy for academic interaction and only enables one side to make whatever they wished out of the ‘rules-based international order’.
Through my research, I wish to provide a contrary view or another side to the problem where the Western narrative does not hold more power than it should. I also wish to provide a larger picture of the emerging conflict in the region and justify how regional politics and geopolitics on their own do not play a role in the political landscape that is building. The map for this conflict expands far beyond. It may not be an exhaustive list of factors that contributed to the scenario we face today, however, my effort remains to point out what may have directly contributed to it. My hope is that I am able to do justice to the same.
References
- Lokker, N., & Hautala, H. (2023, March 30). Russia won’t sit idly by after Finland and Sweden join NATO. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/russia-wont-sit-idly-by-after-finland-and-sweden-join-nato/.
- Scholtz, L. (2020, November 17). The Suwalki Gap dilemma. Militaire Spectator. https://militairespectator.nl/artikelen/suwalki-gap-dilemma.
- Darling, D. (2016, September 21). Sweden’s re-militarization of Gotland is both symbolic and strategic. Real Clear Defense. https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/09/22/swedens_re-militarization_of_gotland_is_both_symbolic_and_strategic_110110.html
- Deni, J. R. (2023, December 18). Is the Baltic Sea a NATO lake? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/12/is-the-baltic-sea-a-nato-lake?lang=en
- Rekha, C. (2017). India-Russia Post Cold War Relations: A New Epoch of Cooperation. Routledge. Ch2.
- Rekha, C. (2017). India-Russia Post Cold War Relations: A New Epoch of Cooperation. Routledge. Ch4.
- Gozzi, L. (2024, February 26). Nord Stream: Denmark closes investigation into pipeline blast. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68401870
- Goble, P. (2024, June 11). Moscow focusing on Gotland and other Baltic Sea islands as potential targets. Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21(89). Jamestown Foundation. https://jamestown.org/program/moscow-focusing-on-gotland-and-other-baltic-sea-islands-as-potential-targets/. This article is one of many examples of such rants.
- Chalmers, M. (2019, April 10). Which rules? Why there is no single ‘rules-based international system’ (Occasional Paper). Royal United Services Institute. https://static.rusi.org/201905_op_which_rules_why_there_is_no_single_rules_based_international_system_web.pdf. In this sentence I have implied a challenge to the frequent use of the phrase ‘rules-based international order’, the citation is to justify that.
About the contributor: Vipra Arora is a Student at OP Jindal Global University, Chandigarh. She is a fellow at DFPGYF Diplomacy, Foreign Policy & Geopolitics Youth Fellowship, IMPRI.
Acknowledgements: The author extends sincere gratitude to Impact and Policy Research Institute India team for reviewing the article and for providing the opportunity to write the article.
Disclaimer: All views expressed in the article belong solely to the author and not necessarily to the organisation.
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